Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.007140 0.008038 0.009009 0.010135 0.011407 0.012800 0.014442
2026-02-01 0.005586 0.006794 0.008206 0.009979 0.012148 0.014722 0.018014
2026-02-08 0.004789 0.006144 0.007815 0.010032 0.012902 0.016503 0.021380
2026-02-15 0.004172 0.005590 0.007416 0.009949 0.013383 0.017894 0.024299
2026-02-22 0.003805 0.005293 0.007285 0.010157 0.014209 0.019751 0.027953
2026-03-01 0.003336 0.004797 0.006818 0.009834 0.014243 0.020491 0.030084
2026-03-08 0.002990 0.004429 0.006484 0.009647 0.014422 0.021414 0.032518
2026-03-15 0.002679 0.004080 0.006136 0.009394 0.014462 0.022108 0.034637
2026-03-22 0.002557 0.003998 0.006172 0.009712 0.015379 0.024182 0.039049
2026-03-29 0.002420 0.003879 0.006135 0.009905 0.016107 0.026007 0.043210
2026-04-05 0.002302 0.003778 0.006115 0.010117 0.016873 0.027940 0.047703
2026-04-12 0.002133 0.003576 0.005915 0.010014 0.017099 0.028995 0.050784
2026-04-19 0.001992 0.003415 0.005771 0.009998 0.017485 0.030366 0.054579
2026-04-26 0.001839 0.003219 0.005554 0.009838 0.017605 0.031290 0.057661
2026-05-03 0.001737 0.003103 0.005464 0.009891 0.018101 0.032907 0.062145
2026-05-10 0.001623 0.002957 0.005309 0.009810 0.018342 0.034072 0.065870
2026-05-17 0.001562 0.002901 0.005309 0.010014 0.019127 0.036303 0.071842
2026-05-24 0.001433 0.002709 0.005045 0.009696 0.018886 0.036563 0.073931
2026-05-31 0.001333 0.002564 0.004859 0.009512 0.018886 0.037279 0.076992
2026-06-07 0.001234 0.002413 0.004648 0.009262 0.018734 0.037679 0.079424
2026-06-14 0.001210 0.002407 0.004717 0.009576 0.019745 0.040499 0.087215
2026-06-21 0.001173 0.002372 0.004726 0.009766 0.020517 0.042883 0.094275
2026-06-28 0.001140 0.002343 0.004744 0.009975 0.021341 0.045441 0.101945